Will North Korea test launch a ballistic missile this month?

Challenge

North Korea experts at the nonpartisan Washington think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) sought a reliable indicator to help their analysts predict when the Kim Jong-un regime would test launch a ballistic missile.

Solution

By coupling Predata predictive algorithms with expert source and event data sets, CSIS was able to build risk signals to anticipate missile activity days and weeks in advance.

Result

The think tank’s experts used these signals to accurately predict the most recent missile launches by North Korea, and more impressively, successfully predict cases where there were no missile launches. See their latest work here.