What is the risk of a supply shock for oil?
Organizations with global exposure need to understand when geopolitical instability can affect supply chains and impact markets. Unexpected disruptions in the Middle East and Africa can lead to sudden supply shocks in global commodity markets, particularly for oil.
Predata uses online attention data to measure global and regional levels of concern over commodity supply factors to help customers understand when there is a heightened risk for a supply shock that could move prices.
Analysis and Results
In early January 2020, Predata issued an alert to clients showing that attention to global crude oil production rose to the highest level since September 2019, when a drone strike hit Saudi Aramco facilities leading to similar scrutiny over energy supply disruptions
At the same time, we saw growing focus on Libya as an additional area for potential supply risks. In the same alert, we noted online attention to the Libyan hydrocarbon industry has risen to the highest level since March 2018.
On January 17, a new offensive in Libya’s ongoing civil war led to a naval blockade of Libya’s oil exporting ports, affecting supply chains and raising oil prices by 2%.