Market participants are generally not inclined to publicly voice their concerns for the near-term future in terms of what they post online, either for fear of giving up their edge or due to social pressure to conform to prevailing wisdom. All the more so when the concern is controversial, such as an impending equities correction in spite of record index levels.
Solution & Analysis
Web research is a subtler way to manifest concern without having to make an outward statement. Predata’s metadata approach detects this under-the-radar activity, revealing the true risks that concern investors before they materialize.
Predata’s U.S. stock market bubble digital concern signal is comprised of metadata for global web research into previous stock market crashes. The signal rise in September was primarily driven by activity from Western European audiences, in particular from those browsing in Swedish and in French.
Predata’s signal measuring concern over stock market bubbles in the United States was elevated through late September 2018. This activity suggested market participants concern peaked about a stock market correction about two weeks before U.S. equity markets began to slide on October 9.