Do investors think the United States is in a stock market bubble?
Market participants are generally not inclined to publicly voice their concerns for the near-term future in terms of what they post online, either for fear of giving up their edge or due to social pressure to conform to prevailing wisdom. All the more so when the concern is controversial, such as an impending equities correction in spite of record index levels.
Web research is a subtler way to manifest concern without having to make an outward statement. Predata’s metadata approach detects abnormal attention to economic concepts and themes, revealing the true risks that concern investors before they materialize.
Analysis and Results
Predata’s U.S. stock market bubble digital concern signal is comprised of metadata for global web research into previous stock market crashes. This signal can be used to alert customers to off-the-radar concerns of a stock market crash – especially when this theme isn’t a part of the public discourse.
For example, Predata’s signal measuring concern over stock market bubbles in the United States was elevated through late September 2018 despite there being no related news headlines. This concern about a stock market correction peaked about two weeks before U.S. equity markets began to slide on October 9.